Ch. 4Strategy #142

Strategy #142

Inside Bar + Inside Bar (Double Inside)

Entry Logic

  • Exact entry trigger: Buy on a close above the high of the first inside bar (the mother bar of the second inside bar). Sell on a close below the low of the first inside bar.
  • Confirmation requirements: Breakout volume should be 2x the 20-period moving average of volume.
  • Timeframe required: Daily chart.
  • Location context: The double inside bar should form at a major weekly or monthly support or resistance level.
  • Market condition requirement: A market that has been in a strong trend and is now in a deep consolidation.

Exit Logic

  • Profit target(s): Target 1 at 1.5x the range of the mother bar. Target 2 at 3x the range of the mother bar.
  • Scaling out rules: Exit 50% at Target 1. Trail the remaining position.
  • Trailing stop rules: Use a trailing stop below the low of the previous candle for longs, and above the high for shorts.
  • Exit on signal failure: If the breakout fails to follow through, exit the trade.
  • Exit on opposite signal: An opposing double inside bar breakout is an exit signal.
  • Exit on time expiration: Not applicable for daily charts.
  • Exit on momentum loss: A divergence on a momentum oscillator can signal an exit.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard stop location: Place the stop loss one tick below the low of the mother bar for a long, and one tick above the high for a short.
  • Soft stop rules: Not used.
  • Maximum dollar loss per trade: 1.5% of the trading account.
  • Maximum percent loss per trade: 1.5%.
  • Structural stop placement: The stop is placed at the opposite side of the mother bar.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk per trade: 0.75% of account equity.
  • Maximum daily loss limit: Not applicable for daily charts.
  • Maximum weekly loss limit: 3% of account equity.
  • Maximum drawdown allowed: 20%.
  • Risk-reward ratio requirement: Minimum 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio.

Position Sizing Model

  • Recommended sizing approach: Position size is determined by the stop loss distance and the account risk limit.
  • Volatility-based adjustment: The size of the mother bar determines the stop loss and position size.
  • Conviction-based sizing: A+ setups get full size. B setups get half size.
  • Scaling in rules: Do not scale into double inside bar breakout trades.
  • Scaling out rules: Scale out at predefined profit targets.

Trade Filtering

  • Market conditions to avoid: Avoid trading double inside bar breakouts in choppy, non-trending markets.
  • Specific setups required: Look for double inside bars that form after a strong directional move.
  • Stock/instrument requirements: High-volume stocks that are in a clear trend.
  • Time of day restrictions: No specific time of day restrictions.
  • Chop/news avoidance rules: Avoid trading around major news events.

Context Framework

  • Trend direction assessment: The breakout should be in the direction of the prevailing trend.
  • VWAP relationship: Not applicable for daily charts.
  • Moving average relationship: The short-term moving averages should be aligned with the direction of the trade.
  • Range location: The double inside bar should form after a period of expansion.
  • Higher timeframe alignment: The direction of the breakout should align with the trend on the weekly and monthly charts.

Trade Management Rules

  • When to move stop to breakeven: Move the stop to breakeven after the first profit target is reached.
  • When to scale out: At 1.5R and 3R.
  • When to add size: Do not add to the position.
  • How to handle fast moves vs slow moves: In fast-moving markets, trail the stop more aggressively.

Time Rules

  • Optimal trading window: Any time during the trading day.
  • Times to avoid: Avoid trading during low-volume periods.
  • Session-specific notes: The pattern can be found in all trading sessions.

Setup Classification

  • A+ setup criteria: Double inside bar breakout in the direction of a strong trend, with high volume confirmation.
  • A setup criteria: Double inside bar breakout with good volume, but some minor divergences.
  • B setup criteria: Double inside bar breakout on average volume.
  • C setup criteria: Low-volume breakout against the trend. Avoid.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instrument requirements: Liquid stocks and ETFs.
  • Volume/liquidity requirements: High average daily volume.
  • Volatility requirements: The stock should have a good daily range.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Expected win rate: 45-55%.
  • Average win size: 3R.
  • Average loss size: 1R.
  • Profit factor: 1.5 - 2.5.
  • Expectancy per trade: Positive.

Failure Conditions

  • Market conditions where strategy fails: Fails in choppy, sideways markets.
  • Specific scenarios to avoid: Avoid breakouts that occur on low volume.

Psychological Rules

  • Key mental discipline requirements: Requires patience to wait for the pattern to form and the discipline to act on the breakout.

Advanced Components

  • Market regime detection: Use a filter to identify trending markets.
  • Volatility/liquidity filters: Apply volume and volatility filters.
  • Correlation filters: Be aware of market correlations.
  • Multi-timeframe alignment: The breakout should be in the direction of the higher timeframe trend.

Location

  • Where this setup is strongest: In strongly trending markets, after a deep consolidation.
  • Where this setup is weakest: In range-bound markets.
  • Location changes outcome: A double inside bar at a key support or resistance level is a stronger signal.