Ch. 4Strategy #144

Strategy #144

1. Consolidation Box Breakout

Entry Logic

Price closes above consolidation box resistance. Confirm with increased volume. Use 5-minute chart. Entry occurs after breakout candle close. Market condition is trending or transitioning.

Exit Logic

Target 1: 1.5x box height. Target 2: 2.5x box height. Scale out 50% at Target 1. Trail stop with 10-period EMA. Exit if 5-minute candle closes back inside box. Exit all after 60 minutes if profit not met.

Stop Loss Structure

Hard stop 0.5x box height below breakout candle low. Max dollar loss $200. Max percent loss 1.5% of account. Structural stop at consolidation box high if price re-enters.

Risk Management Framework

Risk 1% of account per trade. Daily loss limit 3%. Weekly loss limit 7%. Max drawdown 10%. R:R requirement 1.5:1 minimum for initial target.

Position Sizing Model

Size to risk 1% of account. Adjust for volatility using ATR. Increase size by 20% for A+ setups. Scale in 50% on initial entry, 50% on retest of breakout level.

Trade Filtering

Avoid choppy markets. Trade during active sessions (9:30 AM - 12:00 PM EST). Focus on high-volume stocks. Avoid news events.

Context Framework

Trade in direction of daily trend. VWAP above/below price for long/short. Price above 20-period SMA. Range location is near highs/lows of daily range. Higher timeframe (15-minute) also consolidating or trending.

Trade Management Rules

Move stop to breakeven after 1R profit. Scale out 50% at 1.5R. Add size if price retests breakout level with bullish confirmation. Manage fast moves aggressively, slow moves patiently.

Time Rules

Optimal window 9:30 AM - 11:00 AM EST. Avoid 12:00 PM - 1:00 PM EST. Note increased volatility at market open/close.

Setup Classification

A+: Daily trend alignment, high volume breakout, strong momentum. A: Daily trend alignment, moderate volume. B: Counter-trend, moderate volume. C: Low volume, weak momentum.

Market Selection Criteria

Instruments: Large-cap stocks, liquid ETFs. Volume: Min. 1M shares daily. Volatility: ATR > $1.00.

Statistical Edge Metrics

Win rate 55%. Avg win $300. Avg loss $150. Profit factor 1.8. Expectancy $75 per trade.

Failure Conditions

Price fails to hold breakout level. Low volume on breakout. False breakout followed by quick reversal. Market enters chop.

Psychological Rules

Adhere to plan. Avoid revenge trading. Accept losses. Do not chase trades.

Advanced Components

Regime detection: Use ADX to confirm trending environment. Filter out low volatility periods. Correlation: Avoid highly correlated assets unless specific strategy. MTF alignment: 5-minute breakout, 15-minute confirming trend.

Location

Strongest near daily high/low. Weakest in middle of daily range.