Strategy #149
1. Symmetrical Triangle Break
Entry Logic
Trigger: Price closes above the upper trendline on a 5-minute chart. Confirmation: Increased volume on the breakout candle. Timeframe: 5-minute chart. Location context: Price consolidates after a strong directional move. Market condition: Trending market.
Exit Logic
Profit targets: Measure triangle height, project from breakout point. Scaling out: Scale out 50% at first target, trail remaining. Trailing stop: 1 ATR below 5-minute candle low. Signal failure: Price re-enters triangle. Time expiration: Close trade after 2 hours if no target hit. Momentum loss: Close if price stalls for 30 minutes at resistance.
Stop Loss Structure
Hard stop: 0.5% below breakout candle low. Soft stop: Price re-enters triangle and closes below. Max dollar loss: $200 per trade. Max percent loss: 0.5% of account. Structural stop: Below the lowest point of the triangle base.
Risk Management Framework
Risk per trade: 1% of account. Daily limit: 3% maximum drawdown. Weekly limit: 5% maximum drawdown. Max drawdown: 10% before review. R:R requirement: Minimum 2:1.
Position Sizing Model
Sizing approach: Fixed percentage of capital. Volatility adjustment: Reduce size by 20% for instruments with ATR > 1.5%. Conviction sizing: Add 10% size for A+ setups. Scaling in/out: Scale in 50% on initial trigger, 50% on retest of trendline.
Trade Filtering
Market conditions: Avoid choppy, range-bound markets. Setups: Clear symmetrical triangle formation. Instruments: Highly liquid stocks, major forex pairs. Time restrictions: Avoid first 15 minutes of market open. Chop/news avoidance: Do not trade during major economic news releases.
Context Framework
Trend direction: Aligned with higher timeframe trend (e.g., 30-minute chart). VWAP relationship: Price must be above VWAP for long, below for short. MA relationship: Price above 20 EMA for long, below for short. Range location: Breakout from the upper third of the daily range. Higher TF: Daily chart shows clear trend.
Trade Management Rules
Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after 1R profit. Scale out: Scale out at predefined profit targets. Add size: Do not add size to winning trades. Fast vs slow moves: Adjust trailing stop tighter for fast moves.
Time Rules
Optimal window: 9:45 AM - 11:30 AM EST, 1:00 PM - 2:30 PM EST. Times to avoid: Market open (first 15 min), market close (last 30 min). Session notes: Focus on New York session for stocks.
Setup Classification
A+ criteria: High volume breakout, strong higher timeframe trend, clear retest. A criteria: Good volume breakout, aligned higher timeframe trend. B criteria: Moderate volume, minor higher timeframe divergence. C criteria: Low volume, weak higher timeframe trend.
Market Selection Criteria
Instruments: SPY, QQQ, AAPL, MSFT, TSLA. Volume: Average daily volume > 10 million shares. Volatility: ATR between 1% and 2.5% of price.
Statistical Edge Metrics
Win rate: 55%. Avg win: 1.8R. Avg loss: 0.8R. Profit factor: 1.5. Expectancy: $1.10 per dollar risked.
Failure Conditions
Strategy fails if: Market enters extended chop. Volume dries up on breakout attempts. Repeated false breakouts occur.
Psychological Rules
Mental discipline: Stick to the plan. Avoid revenge trading. Manage emotions objectively.
Advanced Components
Regime detection: Use ADX to confirm trending environment. Filters: Use 200 EMA as a long-term trend filter. Correlation: Avoid trading highly correlated assets simultaneously. MTF alignment: Ensure 5-minute, 15-minute, and 30-minute trends align.
Location
Strongest: After a strong, sustained trend. Weakest: In a consolidating, range-bound market.