Ch. 8Strategy #299

Strategy #299

High of Day Momentum Break

Entry Logic

  • Entry trigger: Price breaks above the high of the day.
  • Confirmation: Volume on the breakout bar is 2x the average volume.
  • Timeframe: 5-minute chart.
  • Location context: Price is above VWAP.
  • Market condition: The market is trending up.

Exit Logic

  • Profit targets: 1R and 2R.
  • Scaling out: Sell 50% at 1R.
  • Trailing stop: Use the 9-period EMA as a trailing stop.
  • Signal failure exit: Exit if price closes below the breakout level.
  • Opposite signal exit: Not applicable.
  • Time expiration: Exit by the end of the day.
  • Momentum loss: Exit if momentum slows significantly.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard stop: Below the low of the breakout bar.
  • Soft stop: A close below the breakout level.
  • Max dollar loss: 0.5% of account equity.
  • Max percent loss: 1% of the trade's value.
  • Structural stop: Below the most recent swing low.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk per trade: 0.25% of account equity.
  • Daily limit: 4 losing trades.
  • Weekly limit: 15 losing trades.
  • Max drawdown: 3% of account equity.
  • R:R requirement: 1.5:1.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing approach: Fixed risk per trade.
  • Volatility adjustment: Not applicable.
  • Conviction sizing: Not applicable.
  • Scaling in/out: Scale out at profit targets.

Trade Filtering

  • Market conditions: Avoid choppy markets.
  • Setups: Only trade clean breakouts.
  • Instruments: High-volume stocks.
  • Time restrictions: Trade during the first 2 hours of the session.
  • Chop/news avoidance: Avoid trading around news events.

Context Framework

  • Trend direction: The 15-minute chart should be in an uptrend.
  • VWAP relationship: Price must be above VWAP.
  • MA relationship: The 9-period EMA is above the 20-period EMA.
  • Range location: Breakout from an opening range.
  • Higher TF alignment: The 1-hour chart should be bullish.

Trade Management Rules

  • Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after 1R is reached.
  • Scale out: At profit targets.
  • Add size: Do not add size.
  • Fast vs slow moves: Let fast moves run.

Time Rules

  • Optimal window: 9:30 AM to 11:30 AM EST.
  • Times to avoid: After 11:30 AM EST.
  • Session notes: Strongest in the morning.

Setup Classification

  • A+ criteria: Clean breakout with high volume.
  • A criteria: Breakout with average volume.
  • B criteria: Messy breakout.
  • C criteria: Avoid.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: Stocks in play for the day.
  • Volume: High relative volume.
  • Volatility: Good intraday movement.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win rate: 60%
  • Avg win: 1.5R
  • Avg loss: 1R
  • Profit factor: 1.9
  • Expectancy: 0.5R per trade

Failure Conditions

  • When strategy fails: Fails in choppy, non-trending markets.

Psychological Rules

  • Mental discipline: Do not chase breakouts.

Advanced Components

  • Regime detection: Not applicable.
  • Filters: Volume filter.
  • Correlation: Not applicable.
  • MTF alignment: Check the 15-minute and 1-hour charts.

Location

  • Where strongest: In strongly trending markets.
  • Where weakest: In range-bound markets.