Coppock Curve Momentum

Entry Logic

• Entry trigger: The Coppock Curve crosses above the zero line for a long trade.
• Confirmation: The price is trading above the 20-period EMA.
• Timeframe: Weekly chart.
• Location context: The entry occurs after a market correction.
• Market condition: The market is beginning a new bull market.

Exit Logic

• Profit targets: No fixed profit targets; ride the trend.
• Scaling out: Not applicable.
• Trailing stop: Use the 40-week moving average as a trailing stop.
• Signal failure exit: Exit if the Coppock Curve crosses back below the zero line.
• Opposite signal exit: Not applicable.
• Time expiration: Hold the trade for months or even years.
• Momentum loss: Exit if the Coppock Curve starts to decline.

Stop Loss Structure

• Hard stop: A close below the 40-week moving average.
• Soft stop: Not applicable.
• Max dollar loss: 5% of account equity.
• Max percent loss: 10% of the trade's value.
• Structural stop: Below the low of the correction.

Risk Management Framework

• Risk per trade: 2% of account equity.
• Daily limit: Not applicable.
• Weekly limit: Not applicable.
• Max drawdown: 15% of account equity.
• R:R requirement: Not applicable; this is a long-term trend-following strategy.

Position Sizing Model

• Sizing approach: Fixed fractional sizing.
• Volatility adjustment: Not applicable.
• Conviction sizing: Not applicable.
• Scaling in/out: Not applicable.

Trade Filtering

• Market conditions: Only trade in bull markets.
• Setups: Only trade clear Coppock Curve signals.
• Instruments: Broad market ETFs like SPY or QQQ.
• Time restrictions: Not applicable.
• Chop/news avoidance: Not applicable.

Context Framework

• Trend direction: The Coppock Curve determines the trend direction.
• VWAP relationship: Not applicable.
• MA relationship: The 10-week MA should be above the 40-week MA.
• Range location: The entry should occur after a correction in a bull market.
• Higher TF alignment: Not applicable.

Trade Management Rules

• Breakeven: Not applicable.
• Scale out: Not applicable.
• Add size: Consider adding to the position on pullbacks.
• Fast vs slow moves: Hold through both fast and slow periods.

Time Rules

• Optimal window: Not applicable.
• Times to avoid: Not applicable.
• Session notes: This is a long-term investment strategy.

Setup Classification

• A+ criteria: A clear Coppock Curve signal at the beginning of a new bull market.
• A criteria: A clear Coppock Curve signal during a bull market.
• B criteria: A marginal Coppock Curve signal.
• C criteria: Avoid.

Market Selection Criteria

• Instruments: Broad market ETFs.
• Volume: Not a primary consideration.
• Volatility: Not a primary consideration.

Statistical Edge Metrics

• Win rate: 70%
• Avg win: 10R
• Avg loss: 1R
• Profit factor: 7
• Expectancy: 6.3R per trade

Failure Conditions

• When strategy fails: Fails in bear markets.

Psychological Rules

• Mental discipline: Be patient and think long-term.

Advanced Components

• Regime detection: The Coppock Curve is the regime detection tool.
• Filters: Not applicable.
• Correlation: Not applicable.
• MTF alignment: Not applicable.

Location

• Where strongest: At the beginning of a new bull market.
• Where weakest: In a bear market.