Ch. 10Strategy #395

Strategy #395

Dark Pool Print Trade

Entry Logic

  • Entry is a long position when a large dark pool print is reported below the current market price, indicating institutional buying.
  • Confirmation is the price starting to move up from the dark pool print level.
  • Timeframe is the daily chart.
  • Location is at the dark pool print level.
  • Market is in a long-term uptrend or a consolidation.

Exit Logic

  • Profit target is a measured move from the dark pool print level.
  • Do not scale out.
  • Trail the stop loss below the low of the last 5 bars.
  • Exit if a large dark pool print is reported above the current market price.
  • Exit on a bearish reversal pattern.
  • Exit if the price does not move up within a few weeks.
  • Exit if the dark pool print level is broken to the downside.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard stop is placed below the dark pool print level.
  • Soft stop is a close below the dark pool print level.
  • Maximum dollar loss is $2000 per trade.
  • Maximum percent loss is 10% of the account.
  • Structural stop is below the dark pool print level.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk 5% of the account per trade.
  • Daily loss limit is not applicable for this swing trading strategy.
  • Weekly loss limit is not applicable.
  • Maximum drawdown is 40%.
  • Risk-reward ratio must be at least 1:2.

Position Sizing Model

  • Use a fixed fractional position sizing model.
  • No volatility adjustment.
  • Full size for all setups.
  • Do not scale in or out.

Trade Filtering

  • Avoid trading in long-term downtrends.
  • Only trade when there is a clear dark pool print.
  • Trade only large-cap stocks.
  • Avoid trading during earnings season.
  • Do not trade in illiquid stocks.

Context Framework

  • Trend is up or sideways on the weekly and monthly charts.
  • Price is consolidating near a key support level.
  • Price is often below the 200-day moving average.
  • Location is at the dark pool print level.
  • The higher timeframe chart (weekly) shows a potential bottoming pattern.

Trade Management Rules

  • Move stop to breakeven when the price reaches a 1:1 risk-reward ratio.
  • Do not scale out.
  • Do not add to the position.
  • Be patient and let the trade develop over several weeks or months.

Time Rules

  • This is a long-term investment strategy, so time of day is not relevant.
  • Avoid holding positions over major holidays.
  • The strategy works best in markets that are not in a panic mode.

Setup Classification

  • A+ setup: Large dark pool print in a well-known stock at a historical support level.
  • A setup: Dark pool print in a mid-cap stock.
  • B setup: Dark pool print in a small-cap stock.
  • C setup: No clear dark pool print.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Trade large-cap stocks like AAPL, MSFT, and GOOG.
  • High liquidity is essential.
  • Low volatility is preferred during the accumulation phase.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Expected win rate is 80%.
  • Average win is 4R.
  • Average loss is 1R.
  • Profit factor is 3.2.
  • Expectancy per trade is 3.2R.

Failure Conditions

  • The strategy fails if the dark pool print is a false signal.
  • Avoid trading when the overall market is in a strong downtrend.

Psychological Rules

  • Be patient and have a long-term mindset.
  • Do not be shaken out by short-term fluctuations.

Advanced Components

  • Use a dark pool print data feed to get the information.
  • Use a filter to identify stocks with institutional ownership.
  • Do not trade correlated stocks in the same sector.
  • The weekly chart should confirm the bottoming pattern.

Location

  • Strongest at historical support levels.
  • Weakest in the middle of a trading range.
  • The location of the dark pool print is a key factor.