Strategy #395
Dark Pool Print Trade
Entry Logic
- Entry is a long position when a large dark pool print is reported below the current market price, indicating institutional buying.
- Confirmation is the price starting to move up from the dark pool print level.
- Timeframe is the daily chart.
- Location is at the dark pool print level.
- Market is in a long-term uptrend or a consolidation.
Exit Logic
- Profit target is a measured move from the dark pool print level.
- Do not scale out.
- Trail the stop loss below the low of the last 5 bars.
- Exit if a large dark pool print is reported above the current market price.
- Exit on a bearish reversal pattern.
- Exit if the price does not move up within a few weeks.
- Exit if the dark pool print level is broken to the downside.
Stop Loss Structure
- Hard stop is placed below the dark pool print level.
- Soft stop is a close below the dark pool print level.
- Maximum dollar loss is $2000 per trade.
- Maximum percent loss is 10% of the account.
- Structural stop is below the dark pool print level.
Risk Management Framework
- Risk 5% of the account per trade.
- Daily loss limit is not applicable for this swing trading strategy.
- Weekly loss limit is not applicable.
- Maximum drawdown is 40%.
- Risk-reward ratio must be at least 1:2.
Position Sizing Model
- Use a fixed fractional position sizing model.
- No volatility adjustment.
- Full size for all setups.
- Do not scale in or out.
Trade Filtering
- Avoid trading in long-term downtrends.
- Only trade when there is a clear dark pool print.
- Trade only large-cap stocks.
- Avoid trading during earnings season.
- Do not trade in illiquid stocks.
Context Framework
- Trend is up or sideways on the weekly and monthly charts.
- Price is consolidating near a key support level.
- Price is often below the 200-day moving average.
- Location is at the dark pool print level.
- The higher timeframe chart (weekly) shows a potential bottoming pattern.
Trade Management Rules
- Move stop to breakeven when the price reaches a 1:1 risk-reward ratio.
- Do not scale out.
- Do not add to the position.
- Be patient and let the trade develop over several weeks or months.
Time Rules
- This is a long-term investment strategy, so time of day is not relevant.
- Avoid holding positions over major holidays.
- The strategy works best in markets that are not in a panic mode.
Setup Classification
- A+ setup: Large dark pool print in a well-known stock at a historical support level.
- A setup: Dark pool print in a mid-cap stock.
- B setup: Dark pool print in a small-cap stock.
- C setup: No clear dark pool print.
Market Selection Criteria
- Trade large-cap stocks like AAPL, MSFT, and GOOG.
- High liquidity is essential.
- Low volatility is preferred during the accumulation phase.
Statistical Edge Metrics
- Expected win rate is 80%.
- Average win is 4R.
- Average loss is 1R.
- Profit factor is 3.2.
- Expectancy per trade is 3.2R.
Failure Conditions
- The strategy fails if the dark pool print is a false signal.
- Avoid trading when the overall market is in a strong downtrend.
Psychological Rules
- Be patient and have a long-term mindset.
- Do not be shaken out by short-term fluctuations.
Advanced Components
- Use a dark pool print data feed to get the information.
- Use a filter to identify stocks with institutional ownership.
- Do not trade correlated stocks in the same sector.
- The weekly chart should confirm the bottoming pattern.
Location
- Strongest at historical support levels.
- Weakest in the middle of a trading range.
- The location of the dark pool print is a key factor.