Ch. 12Strategy #449

Strategy #449

CCI Trend Trade (+100/-100)

Entry Logic

  • Exact Entry Trigger: In an uptrend, enter long when CCI dips below +100 and then crosses back above it. In a downtrend, enter short when CCI rallies above -100 and then crosses back below it.
  • Confirmation: A candle closing in the direction of the trend.
  • Timeframe: 15-minute, 60-minute.
  • Market Condition: Established trend.

Exit Logic

  • Profit Targets: Target the prior swing high/low.
  • Opposite Signal: Exit if CCI crosses the zero line against the trade.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard Stop: Place stop below the recent pullback low.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk Per Trade: 1% of account capital.
  • R:R Requirement: Minimum 2:1.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing Approach: Fixed fractional.

Trade Filtering

  • Market Conditions to Avoid: Ranging markets.

Context Framework

  • Trend Direction: Only trade in the direction of the established trend.

Trade Management Rules

  • Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after a 1R move.

Time Rules

  • Optimal Window: Mid-morning to late afternoon.

Setup Classification

  • A+ Setup: The pullback aligns with a key Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 50%).

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: Trend-following stocks and commodities.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win Rate: 55-65%.
  • Profit Factor: 1.9.
  • Expectancy: 0.45R.

Failure Conditions

  • Strategy Fails: When the trend is weak or reversing.

Psychological Rules

  • Discipline: Avoid chasing entries if the pullback is missed.

Advanced Components

  • Filters: Use an ADX reading above 25 to confirm the trend strength.

Location

  • Strongest: As a continuation trade in a strong, confirmed trend.