Ch. 13Strategy #487

Strategy #487

0DTE Put Scalp

Entry Logic

  • Entry Trigger: 1-minute candle closes below VWAP after a bearish divergence on the 1-minute RSI.
  • Confirmation: Volume on the entry candle is 150% of the 20-period moving average of volume.
  • Timeframe: 1-minute chart for entry, 5-minute for context.
  • Location: Below the opening range low, below the 9 EMA.
  • Market Condition: Strong downtrend on the underlying asset.

Exit Logic

  • Profit Target: 20% gain on the option premium.
  • Scaling Out: Sell 50% at 20% gain, trail the rest.
  • Trailing Stop: 10% trailing stop on the option premium.
  • Signal Failure: Exit if the underlying asset closes back above VWAP.
  • Opposite Signal: Exit on a bullish divergence on the 1-minute RSI.
  • Time Expiration: Close position 30 minutes before market close.
  • Momentum Loss: Exit if the underlying asset's volume drops below the 20-period moving average.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard Stop: 15% loss on the option premium.
  • Soft Stop: If the underlying asset breaks the high of the entry candle.
  • Max Dollar Loss: $100 per contract.
  • Max Percent Loss: 15% of the option premium.
  • Structural Stop: Above the most recent 1-minute swing high.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk Per Trade: 0.5% of account balance.
  • Daily Limit: 3 losing trades.
  • Weekly Limit: 5% drawdown.
  • Max Drawdown: 15% of account balance.
  • R:R Requirement: Minimum 1.5:1.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing Approach: Fixed number of contracts per trade.
  • Volatility Adjustment: Reduce size by 50% if VIX is above 30.
  • Conviction Sizing: A+ setups get 2x size.
  • Scaling In: Not recommended for this strategy.
  • Scaling Out: Sell 50% at profit target 1.

Trade Filtering

  • Market Conditions: Avoid choppy, range-bound markets.
  • Setups: Only take A+ or A setups.
  • Instruments: SPY, QQQ, IWM.
  • Time Restrictions: First 2 hours of the trading day.
  • Chop/News Avoidance: Avoid trading during major news events.

Context Framework

  • Trend Direction: Aligned with the 5-minute and 15-minute trend.
  • VWAP Relationship: Trade only when the underlying is below VWAP.
  • MA Relationship: Underlying is below the 9 and 21 EMAs on the 5-minute chart.
  • Range Location: Entry is near the low of the daily range.
  • Higher TF Alignment: 5-minute and 15-minute charts show a clear downtrend.

Trade Management Rules

  • Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after 10% gain.
  • Scale Out: At 20% gain.
  • Add Size: Not recommended.
  • Fast vs Slow Moves: Let winners run in fast moves, take profits quickly in slow moves.

Time Rules

  • Optimal Window: 9:30 AM - 11:30 AM EST.
  • Times to Avoid: After 2:00 PM EST.
  • Session Notes: Strongest during the morning session.

Setup Classification

  • A+ Criteria: All entry criteria met, strong volume, clear trend.
  • A Criteria: All entry criteria met, average volume.
  • B Criteria: Missing one confirmation signal.
  • C Criteria: Avoid.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: Highly liquid ETFs (SPY, QQQ).
  • Volume: Underlying daily volume > 50 million shares.
  • Volatility: VIX between 15 and 30.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win Rate: 55%.
  • Avg Win: 25%.
  • Avg Loss: 15%.
  • Profit Factor: 1.65.
  • Expectancy: Positive.

Failure Conditions

  • Strategy Fails: In low-volume, choppy markets.
  • Specific Scenarios: When the underlying asset has a sudden reversal.

Psychological Rules

  • Mental Discipline: Stick to the plan, do not chase trades.

Advanced Components

  • Regime Detection: Use a market regime filter to identify trending markets.
  • Filters: Volume and volatility filters.
  • Correlation: Avoid trading correlated assets simultaneously.
  • MTF Alignment: 5, 15, and 60-minute charts must be aligned.

Location

  • Strongest: In strong, trending markets.
  • Weakest: In choppy, range-bound markets.