Options Skew Trade

Entry Logic

• Entry Trigger: The options skew reaches an extreme level.
• Confirmation: The market reverses at the extreme skew level.
• Timeframe: Daily chart for the skew, 15-minute for entry.
• Location: N/A.
• Market Condition: Extreme sentiment.

Exit Logic

• Profit Target: 30% gain.
• Scaling Out: N/A.
• Trailing Stop: 15% trailing stop.
• Signal Failure: N/A.
• Opposite Signal: N/A.
• Time Expiration: Close by end of day.
• Momentum Loss: N/A.

Stop Loss Structure

• Hard Stop: 15% loss.
• Soft Stop: N/A.
• Max Dollar Loss: $150 per trade.
• Max Percent Loss: 15% of the premium.
• Structural Stop: N/A.

Risk Management Framework

• Risk Per Trade: 1% of account balance.
• Daily Limit: 3 losing trades.
• Weekly Limit: 5% drawdown.
• Max Drawdown: 15% of account balance.
• R:R Requirement: Minimum 2:1.

Position Sizing Model

• Sizing Approach: Fixed dollar amount per trade.
• Volatility Adjustment: N/A.
• Conviction Sizing: N/A.
• Scaling In: N/A.
• Scaling Out: N/A.

Trade Filtering

• Market Conditions: Extreme sentiment.
• Setups: Options skew extreme.
• Instruments: SPY, QQQ.
• Time Restrictions: Any.
• Chop/News Avoidance: N/A.

Context Framework

• Trend Direction: N/A.
• VWAP Relationship: N/A.
• MA Relationship: N/A.
• Range Location: N/A.
• Higher TF Alignment: N/A.

Trade Management Rules

• Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after 15% gain.
• Scale Out: N/A.
• Add Size: N/A.
• Fast vs Slow Moves: N/A.

Time Rules

• Optimal Window: Any.
• Times to Avoid: N/A.
• Session Notes: N/A.

Setup Classification

• A+ Criteria: Extreme skew with strong reversal confirmation.
• A Criteria: Extreme skew with reversal confirmation.
• B Criteria: Extreme skew without reversal confirmation.
• C Criteria: Avoid.

Market Selection Criteria

• Instruments: SPY, QQQ.
• Volume: High.
• Volatility: Any.

Statistical Edge Metrics

• Win Rate: 65%.
• Avg Win: 30%.
• Avg Loss: 15%.
• Profit Factor: 1.3.
• Expectancy: Positive.

Failure Conditions

• Strategy Fails: When the extreme sentiment persists.
• Specific Scenarios: A major news event causes a sustained move.

Psychological Rules

• Mental Discipline: Be a contrarian.

Advanced Components

• Regime Detection: N/A.
• Filters: Use a filter for the options skew.
• Correlation: N/A.
• MTF Alignment: N/A.

Location

• Strongest: At extreme sentiment levels.
• Weakest: In a trending market.