Ch. 2Strategy #52

Strategy #52

5 EMA Scalp Entry

Entry Logic

  • Entry trigger: In a very strong trend, price pulls back to the 5 EMA.
  • Confirmation: A small bullish or bearish candle forms at the 5 EMA.
  • Timeframe: 1-minute or 2-minute chart.
  • Location context: The trend is extremely strong and the 5 EMA is acting as tight support or resistance.
  • Market condition: A very strong, fast-moving trend.

Exit Logic

  • Profit target: 1R or the next minor support/resistance level.
  • Scaling out: Not recommended.
  • Trailing stop: A close on the wrong side of the 5 EMA.
  • Signal failure: Exit immediately if the trade does not work.
  • Opposite signal: Exit on a reversal signal.
  • Time expiration: Exit if the trade is not profitable within 5-10 minutes.
  • Momentum loss: Exit if momentum stalls.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard stop: Just below the entry candle's low (for longs) or above the high (for shorts).
  • Soft stop: A close on the wrong side of the 5 EMA.
  • Max dollar loss: $50 per trade.
  • Max percent loss: 0.5% of account.
  • Structural stop: Not applicable.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk per trade: 0.25% of account.
  • Daily limit: 5 losing trades.
  • Weekly limit: 3% drawdown.
  • Max drawdown: 10%.
  • R:R requirement: Minimum 1:1.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing approach: Fixed dollar risk ($50 per trade).
  • Volatility adjustment: None.
  • Conviction sizing: None.
  • Scaling in: Not recommended.
  • Scaling out: Not recommended.

Trade Filtering

  • Market conditions: Only trade in extremely strong trends.
  • Setups: Only take pullbacks to the 5 EMA.
  • Instruments: Highly liquid stocks and ETFs.
  • Time restrictions: Only trade during the first hour of the market open.
  • Chop/news avoidance: Avoid trading around news.

Context Framework

  • Trend direction: The trend must be extremely strong.
  • VWAP relationship: Trade in the direction of VWAP.
  • MA relationship: The 5 EMA is steeply sloped.
  • Range location: The trade is taken in the direction of the trend.
  • Higher TF alignment: The 5-minute and 15-minute charts should confirm the strong trend.

Trade Management Rules

  • Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after a 0.5R move.
  • Scale out: Not recommended.
  • Add size: Not recommended.
  • Fast vs slow moves: This strategy is only for fast moves.

Time Rules

  • Optimal window: 9:30 AM - 10:30 AM EST.
  • Times to avoid: Any other time.
  • Session notes: Only works in the morning session.

Setup Classification

  • A+ setup: A perfect pullback to the 5 EMA in a very strong trend.
  • A setup: A decent pullback.
  • B setup: A weak pullback.
  • C setup: Avoid.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: TSLA, NVDA, and other high-beta stocks.
  • Volume: Very high.
  • Volatility: Very high.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win rate: 65%.
  • Avg win: 1R.
  • Avg loss: 1R.
  • Profit factor: 1.85.
  • Expectancy: 0.85R.

Failure Conditions

  • The strategy fails when the trend slows down or reverses.
  • Avoid taking trades if the 5 EMA is not steeply sloped.

Psychological Rules

  • Be quick to take profits and cut losses.
  • Do not hesitate.

Advanced Components

  • Regime detection: Use the slope of the 5 EMA to determine the trend strength.
  • Filters: Only trade when the slope is greater than 45 degrees.
  • Correlation: Be aware of market correlations.
  • MTF alignment: Check the 5-minute and 15-minute charts.

Location

  • Strongest: In a very strong, fast-moving trend.
  • Weakest: In any other market condition.