Strategy #52
5 EMA Scalp Entry
Entry Logic
- Entry trigger: In a very strong trend, price pulls back to the 5 EMA.
- Confirmation: A small bullish or bearish candle forms at the 5 EMA.
- Timeframe: 1-minute or 2-minute chart.
- Location context: The trend is extremely strong and the 5 EMA is acting as tight support or resistance.
- Market condition: A very strong, fast-moving trend.
Exit Logic
- Profit target: 1R or the next minor support/resistance level.
- Scaling out: Not recommended.
- Trailing stop: A close on the wrong side of the 5 EMA.
- Signal failure: Exit immediately if the trade does not work.
- Opposite signal: Exit on a reversal signal.
- Time expiration: Exit if the trade is not profitable within 5-10 minutes.
- Momentum loss: Exit if momentum stalls.
Stop Loss Structure
- Hard stop: Just below the entry candle's low (for longs) or above the high (for shorts).
- Soft stop: A close on the wrong side of the 5 EMA.
- Max dollar loss: $50 per trade.
- Max percent loss: 0.5% of account.
- Structural stop: Not applicable.
Risk Management Framework
- Risk per trade: 0.25% of account.
- Daily limit: 5 losing trades.
- Weekly limit: 3% drawdown.
- Max drawdown: 10%.
- R:R requirement: Minimum 1:1.
Position Sizing Model
- Sizing approach: Fixed dollar risk ($50 per trade).
- Volatility adjustment: None.
- Conviction sizing: None.
- Scaling in: Not recommended.
- Scaling out: Not recommended.
Trade Filtering
- Market conditions: Only trade in extremely strong trends.
- Setups: Only take pullbacks to the 5 EMA.
- Instruments: Highly liquid stocks and ETFs.
- Time restrictions: Only trade during the first hour of the market open.
- Chop/news avoidance: Avoid trading around news.
Context Framework
- Trend direction: The trend must be extremely strong.
- VWAP relationship: Trade in the direction of VWAP.
- MA relationship: The 5 EMA is steeply sloped.
- Range location: The trade is taken in the direction of the trend.
- Higher TF alignment: The 5-minute and 15-minute charts should confirm the strong trend.
Trade Management Rules
- Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after a 0.5R move.
- Scale out: Not recommended.
- Add size: Not recommended.
- Fast vs slow moves: This strategy is only for fast moves.
Time Rules
- Optimal window: 9:30 AM - 10:30 AM EST.
- Times to avoid: Any other time.
- Session notes: Only works in the morning session.
Setup Classification
- A+ setup: A perfect pullback to the 5 EMA in a very strong trend.
- A setup: A decent pullback.
- B setup: A weak pullback.
- C setup: Avoid.
Market Selection Criteria
- Instruments: TSLA, NVDA, and other high-beta stocks.
- Volume: Very high.
- Volatility: Very high.
Statistical Edge Metrics
- Win rate: 65%.
- Avg win: 1R.
- Avg loss: 1R.
- Profit factor: 1.85.
- Expectancy: 0.85R.
Failure Conditions
- The strategy fails when the trend slows down or reverses.
- Avoid taking trades if the 5 EMA is not steeply sloped.
Psychological Rules
- Be quick to take profits and cut losses.
- Do not hesitate.
Advanced Components
- Regime detection: Use the slope of the 5 EMA to determine the trend strength.
- Filters: Only trade when the slope is greater than 45 degrees.
- Correlation: Be aware of market correlations.
- MTF alignment: Check the 5-minute and 15-minute charts.
Location
- Strongest: In a very strong, fast-moving trend.
- Weakest: In any other market condition.