Ch. 15Strategy #570

Strategy #570

Multi-Timeframe Structure Alignment

Entry Logic

  • Entry trigger: A trade setup (e.g., a pullback entry) appears on the 15-minute chart, and it is perfectly aligned with the market structure of the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts.
  • Confirmation: All four timeframes are showing a clear trend in the same direction.
  • Timeframe: Daily, 4-hour, 1-hour, and 15-minute.
  • Location context: The entry should be at a logical support/resistance level on the 15-minute chart.
  • Market condition: A strong, established trend across all timeframes.

Exit Logic

  • Profit target: A major swing high/low on the 1-hour chart.
  • Scaling out: 50% at 3R.
  • Trailing stop: Trail below the 1-hour 20 EMA.
  • Signal failure exit: Exit if the 15-minute structure breaks.
  • Opposite signal exit: Exit if the 1-hour structure breaks.
  • Time expiration: Hold for as long as the alignment is intact.
  • Momentum loss: Exit if momentum diverges on the 1-hour chart.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard stop: Below the low of the 15-minute setup.
  • Soft stop: Not used.
  • Max dollar loss: $200 per trade.
  • Max percent loss: 1% of account.
  • Structural stop: The low of the 15-minute setup.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk per trade: 0.75% of account.
  • Daily limit: 2 losing trades.
  • Weekly limit: 3% drawdown.
  • Max drawdown: 10%.
  • R:R requirement: Minimum 3:1.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing approach: Fixed fractional sizing.
  • Volatility adjustment: Standard sizing.
  • Conviction sizing: This is an A+ setup by definition; use full size.
  • Scaling in: Can add on subsequent 15-minute setups.
  • Scaling out: At 3R.

Trade Filtering

  • Market conditions to avoid: Any market that is not perfectly aligned across all timeframes.
  • Setups required: A clear trend on all four timeframes.
  • Instruments: Any liquid instrument.
  • Time restrictions: High-volume sessions.
  • Chop/news avoidance: Avoid around news.

Context Framework

  • Trend direction: Aligned on all timeframes.
  • VWAP relationship: Price is on the correct side of the VWAP on all timeframes.
  • MA relationship: MAs are aligned on all timeframes.
  • Range location: Not a range trade.
  • Higher TF alignment: This is the core of the strategy.

Trade Management Rules

  • Breakeven: Move to breakeven at 2R.
  • Scale out: At 3R.
  • Add size: On subsequent 15-minute setups.
  • Fast vs slow moves: Let profits run.

Time Rules

  • Optimal window: Any high-volume session.
  • Times to avoid: Low-volume periods.
  • Session notes: These setups are rare, but have a very high probability of success.

Setup Classification

  • A+ criteria: Perfect alignment across all four timeframes.
  • A criteria: Not applicable.
  • B criteria: Not applicable.
  • C criteria: Not applicable.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: Any liquid instrument.
  • Volume: High.
  • Volatility: Moderate to high.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win rate: 70%+.
  • Avg win: 4R.
  • Avg loss: 1R.
  • Profit factor: 2.8+.
  • Expectancy: Very high.

Failure Conditions

  • The alignment breaks down on one of the timeframes.
  • A major news event causes a sudden reversal.

Psychological Rules

  • Requires patience to wait for these rare setups.
  • Requires conviction to take a large position.

Advanced Components

  • Regime detection: This is the definition of a trending regime.
  • Filters: Not necessary.
  • Correlation: The alignment should be confirmed by the broader market.
  • MTF alignment: This is the strategy.

Location

  • Strongest: In a strong, established trend.
  • Weakest: Not applicable.