TEMA Trend Confirmation

Entry Logic

• Entry trigger: The Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA) is in a clear trend.
• Confirmation: Price pulls back to the TEMA and a confirmation candle forms.
• Timeframe: 15-minute chart.
• Location context: The TEMA is acting as dynamic support or resistance.
• Market condition: A strong, established trend.

Exit Logic

• Profit target: 2R or the next significant support/resistance level.
• Scaling out: Scale out 50% at 1R.
• Trailing stop: Trail the stop on the other side of the TEMA.
• Signal failure: Exit if the TEMA flattens or reverses.
• Opposite signal: Exit on a confirmed reversal signal.
• Time expiration: None.
• Momentum loss: Exit if momentum fades.

Stop Loss Structure

• Hard stop: 1 ATR below the entry candle's low (for longs) or above the high (for shorts).
• Soft stop: A close on the wrong side of the TEMA.
• Max dollar loss: $150 per trade.
• Max percent loss: 1.5% of account.
• Structural stop: Below the most recent swing low (for longs) or above the swing high (for shorts).

Risk Management Framework

• Risk per trade: 1% of account.
• Daily limit: 3 losing trades.
• Weekly limit: 5% drawdown.
• Max drawdown: 15%.
• R:R requirement: Minimum 1.5:1.

Position Sizing Model

• Sizing approach: Fixed fractional (1% of account).
• Volatility adjustment: Adjust size based on ATR.
• Conviction sizing: A+ setups get 1.5% risk.
• Scaling in: Not recommended.
• Scaling out: At 1R and 2R.

Trade Filtering

• Market conditions: Avoid non-trending markets.
• Setups: Only take pullbacks to the TEMA in a clear trend.
• Instruments: Any liquid instrument.
• Time restrictions: None.
• Chop/news avoidance: Avoid trading around major news.

Context Framework

• Trend direction: The trend must be clearly established and confirmed by the TEMA.
• VWAP relationship: Trade in the direction of VWAP.
• MA relationship: The TEMA is steeply sloped.
• Range location: The trade should be taken in the direction of the overall range expansion.
• Higher TF alignment: The higher timeframe chart should confirm the trend direction.

Trade Management Rules

• Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after a 1R move.
• Scale out: At 1R and 2R.
• Add size: Not recommended.
• Fast vs slow moves: Let the trade run in a strong trend.

Time Rules

• Optimal window: Any time during a strong trend.
• Times to avoid: Choppy, non-trending periods.
• Session notes: Works well in all sessions.

Setup Classification

• A+ setup: A perfect pullback to the TEMA with a strong confirmation candle.
• A setup: A decent pullback with a good confirmation candle.
• B setup: A pullback with a weak confirmation candle.
• C setup: Avoid.

Market Selection Criteria

• Instruments: Any liquid instrument.
• Volume: High.
• Volatility: Moderate.

Statistical Edge Metrics

• Win rate: 60%.
• Avg win: 1.5R.
• Avg loss: 1R.
• Profit factor: 1.4.
• Expectancy: 0.4R.

Failure Conditions

• The strategy fails when the trend ends or the market becomes choppy.
• Avoid taking trades if the TEMA is not steeply sloped.

Psychological Rules

• Trust the trend and the TEMA.
• Do not get shaken out by minor pullbacks.

Advanced Components

• Regime detection: Use the ADX to confirm the trend strength.
• Filters: Only take trades if the ADX is above 25.
• Correlation: Be aware of market correlations.
• MTF alignment: Check the higher timeframe trend.

Location

• Strongest: In a strong, established trend.
• Weakest: In a choppy, non-trending market.