Negative Volume Index Trade

Entry Logic

• Enter long when the Negative Volume Index (NVI) crosses above its 255-day moving average.
• Confirmation: The price must be in an uptrend.
• Timeframe: Daily chart.
• Location: In an uptrend.
• Market Condition: A long-term uptrend.

Exit Logic

• Profit Target: Not applicable.
• Scaling Out: Not applicable.
• Trailing Stop: A close below the 50-day SMA.
• Signal Failure: The NVI crosses back below its 255-day moving average.
• Opposite Signal: Not applicable.
• Time Expiration: Not applicable.
• Momentum Loss: A failure to make a new high.

Stop Loss Structure

• Hard Stop: A close below the 50-day SMA.
• Soft Stop: Not applicable.
• Max Dollar Loss: Not applicable.
• Max Percent Loss: Not applicable.
• Structural Stop: Below the most recent swing low.

Risk Management Framework

• Risk Per Trade: Not applicable.
• Daily Limit: Not applicable.
• Weekly Limit: Not applicable.
• Max Drawdown: Not applicable.
• R:R Requirement: Not applicable.

Position Sizing Model

• Sizing Approach: Equal weight.
• Volatility Adjustment: Not applicable.
• Conviction Sizing: Not applicable.
• Scaling In: Not applicable.
• Scaling Out: Not applicable.

Trade Filtering

• Market Conditions: Only trade in long-term uptrends.
• Setups: Look for NVI crossovers.
• Instruments: Broad market indices.
• Time Restrictions: Not applicable.
• Chop/News Avoidance: Not applicable.

Context Framework

• Trend Direction: Must be in a clear long-term uptrend.
• VWAP Relationship: Not applicable.
• MA Relationship: Price should be above the 200-day SMA.
• Range Location: Not applicable.
• Higher TF Alignment: Not applicable.

Trade Management Rules

• Breakeven: Not applicable.
• Scale Out: Not applicable.
• Add Size: Not applicable.
• Fast vs Slow Moves: Hold for the long term.

Time Rules

• Optimal Window: Not applicable.
• Times to Avoid: Not applicable.
• Session Notes: Not applicable.

Setup Classification

• A+ Setup: An NVI crossover in a strong uptrend.
• A Setup: An NVI crossover in a good uptrend.
• B Setup: An NVI crossover in a weak uptrend.
• C Setup: Avoid weak setups.

Market Selection Criteria

• Instruments: Broad market indices like the S&P 500.
• Volume: Not applicable.
• Volatility: Not applicable.

Statistical Edge Metrics

• Win Rate: Not applicable.
• Avg Win: Not applicable.
• Avg Loss: Not applicable.
• Profit Factor: Not applicable.
• Expectancy: Not applicable.

Failure Conditions

• The strategy fails in bear markets.
• Avoid trading if the trend is not clear.

Psychological Rules

• Be patient and hold for the long term.
• Do not get shaken out by short-term volatility.

Advanced Components

• Regime Detection: Use a long-term trend filter.
• Filters: Use the NVI as a filter.
• Correlation: Not applicable.
• MTF Alignment: Not applicable.

Location

• Strongest: In a secular bull market.
• Weakest: In a secular bear market.