No Demand / No Supply (VSA)

Entry Logic

• Enter short on a "no demand" bar.
• Confirmation: The next bar must be bearish.
• Timeframe: 5-minute chart.
• Location: At a key resistance level.
• Market Condition: A downtrend.

Exit Logic

• Profit Target: The previous swing low.
• Scaling Out: Not recommended.
• Trailing Stop: A close above the 20-period EMA.
• Signal Failure: A close above the resistance level.
• Opposite Signal: A "no supply" bar.
• Time Expiration: End of the day.
• Momentum Loss: A failure to make a new low.

Stop Loss Structure

• Hard Stop: Above the high of the no demand bar.
• Soft Stop: A close above the resistance level.
• Max Dollar Loss: $90 per trade.
• Max Percent Loss: 0.9% of account.
• Structural Stop: Above the resistance level.

Risk Management Framework

• Risk Per Trade: 0.45% of account.
• Daily Limit: 3 losing trades.
• Weekly Limit: 4% drawdown.
• Max Drawdown: 12%.
• R:R Requirement: Minimum 1.5:1.

Position Sizing Model

• Sizing Approach: Fixed fractional.
• Volatility Adjustment: No adjustment needed.
• Conviction Sizing: Full size on A+ setups.
• Scaling In: Not recommended.
• Scaling Out: Not recommended.

Trade Filtering

• Market Conditions: Only trade in downtrends.
• Setups: Look for VSA signals.
• Instruments: High-volume stocks.
• Time Restrictions: No restrictions.
• Chop/News Avoidance: Avoid trading around news.

Context Framework

• Trend Direction: Must be in a clear downtrend.
• VWAP Relationship: Price should be below VWAP.
• MA Relationship: Price should be below the 50-period SMA.
• Range Location: Not applicable.
• Higher TF Alignment: The daily chart should be in a downtrend.

Trade Management Rules

• Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after a 1R move.
• Scale Out: Not recommended.
• Add Size: Not recommended.
• Fast vs Slow Moves: Take profits at the target.

Time Rules

• Optimal Window: Any time during the day.
• Times to Avoid: None.
• Session Notes: Works well in all sessions.

Setup Classification

• A+ Setup: A clear VSA signal in a strong downtrend.
• A Setup: A good VSA signal in a decent downtrend.
• B Setup: A questionable VSA signal or downtrend.
• C Setup: Avoid weak setups.

Market Selection Criteria

• Instruments: Stocks with a daily volume of over 1 million shares.
• Volume: Not applicable.
• Volatility: Moderate volatility.

Statistical Edge Metrics

• Win Rate: 60%.
• Avg Win: 1.5R.
• Avg Loss: 1R.
• Profit Factor: 0.9.
• Expectancy: -0.1R per trade.

Failure Conditions

• The strategy fails if the trend is not strong.
• Avoid trading if the VSA signal is not clear.

Psychological Rules

• Be patient and wait for the right VSA signal.
• Do not force trades.

Advanced Components

• Regime Detection: Use a trend filter.
• Filters: Use VSA signals as filters.
• Correlation: Avoid correlated instruments.
• MTF Alignment: Ensure higher timeframe alignment.

Location

• Strongest: In a strong, established trend.
• Weakest: In a choppy, sideways market.