Ch. 17Strategy #625

Strategy #625

Volume Imbalance at Support/Resistance

Entry Logic

  • Enter long on a test of a support level where there is a significant volume imbalance on the bid side.
  • Confirmation: A bullish reversal candle.
  • Timeframe: 1-minute chart with order flow data.
  • Location: At a key support level.
  • Market Condition: Any market condition.

Exit Logic

  • Profit Target: 1R.
  • Scaling Out: Not recommended.
  • Trailing Stop: A close below the support level.
  • Signal Failure: A close below the support level.
  • Opposite Signal: A large volume imbalance on the ask side.
  • Time Expiration: 15 minutes.
  • Momentum Loss: A failure to move away from the support level.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard Stop: Below the low of the reversal candle.
  • Soft Stop: A close below the support level.
  • Max Dollar Loss: $50 per trade.
  • Max Percent Loss: 0.5% of account.
  • Structural Stop: Below the support level.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk Per Trade: 0.25% of account.
  • Daily Limit: 5 losing trades.
  • Weekly Limit: 5% drawdown.
  • Max Drawdown: 15%.
  • R:R Requirement: Minimum 1:1.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing Approach: Fixed fractional.
  • Volatility Adjustment: No adjustment needed.
  • Conviction Sizing: Full size on A+ setups.
  • Scaling In: Not recommended.
  • Scaling Out: Not recommended.

Trade Filtering

  • Market Conditions: Any market condition.
  • Setups: Look for volume imbalances at support and resistance.
  • Instruments: Futures and other instruments with order flow data.
  • Time Restrictions: No restrictions.
  • Chop/News Avoidance: Avoid trading around news.

Context Framework

  • Trend Direction: Not applicable.
  • VWAP Relationship: Not applicable.
  • MA Relationship: Not applicable.
  • Range Location: At a key support or resistance level.
  • Higher TF Alignment: Not applicable.

Trade Management Rules

  • Breakeven: Not applicable.
  • Scale Out: Not applicable.
  • Add Size: Not recommended.
  • Fast vs Slow Moves: Take profits quickly.

Time Rules

  • Optimal Window: Any time during the day.
  • Times to Avoid: None.
  • Session Notes: Works well in all sessions.

Setup Classification

  • A+ Setup: A large volume imbalance with a clear reversal candle.
  • A Setup: A decent volume imbalance with a good reversal candle.
  • B Setup: A questionable volume imbalance or reversal candle.
  • C Setup: Avoid weak setups.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: Futures and other instruments with order flow data.
  • Volume: High volume.
  • Volatility: Any volatility.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win Rate: 70%.
  • Avg Win: 1R.
  • Avg Loss: 1R.
  • Profit Factor: 0.7.
  • Expectancy: -0.3R per trade.

Failure Conditions

  • The strategy fails if the volume imbalance is not significant.
  • Avoid trading if the reversal candle is weak.

Psychological Rules

  • Be quick to take profits and cut losses.
  • Do not get attached to any single trade.

Advanced Components

  • Regime Detection: Not applicable.
  • Filters: Use an order flow filter.
  • Correlation: Avoid correlated instruments.
  • MTF Alignment: Not applicable.

Location

  • Strongest: At key support and resistance levels.
  • Weakest: In the middle of a range.