Crypto Perpetual Swap Funding

Entry Logic

• When the funding rate for a perpetual swap becomes significantly negative, enter a long position.
• Confirmation requires the funding rate to remain negative for at least 24 hours.
• The entry timeframe is the daily chart.
• The setup is valid when there is a clear divergence between price and funding rates.
• This is a contrarian strategy that bets on a reversion to the mean.

Exit Logic

• Exit the trade when the funding rate normalizes (e.g., turns positive).
• No scaling out is required for this strategy.
• A trailing stop is not used.
• Exit the trade if the funding rate becomes even more negative.
• An opposite signal (positive funding rate) triggers an immediate exit.
• The trade is closed when the funding rate normalizes.
• Exit if the price continues to trend strongly against the position.

Stop Loss Structure

• A hard stop is placed at a 10% loss.
• A soft stop is a daily close below the recent swing low.
• The maximum dollar loss per trade is determined by the position size.
• The maximum percent loss is 5% of the allocated capital.
• The structural stop is placed below the recent low.

Risk Management Framework

• Risk no more than 2% of the trading account on a single trade.
• The maximum daily loss limit is 4% of the account.
• The maximum weekly loss limit is 8% of the account.
• A maximum drawdown of 20% will trigger a 2-week trading halt.
• The risk-reward ratio is not the primary consideration.

Position Sizing Model

• Use a fixed capital allocation for each trade.
• No volatility adjustment is needed.
• Conviction is based on the extremity of the funding rate.
• Do not scale into trades.
• Do not scale out of trades.

Trade Filtering

• Avoid trading when the funding rate is close to neutral.
• The setup requires a sustained period of negative funding rates.
• This strategy is designed for perpetual swaps.
• The optimal trading time is when the market is overly bearish.
• Do not trade against a strong, fundamentally driven downtrend.

Context Framework

• The trend direction is not the primary consideration.
• The price should be oversold and far from its moving averages.
• The funding rate should be at historical lows.
• The entry should occur after a period of excessive fear.
• The weekly chart should show signs of bottoming.

Trade Management Rules

• Hold the position until the funding rate normalizes.
• Do not move the stop to breakeven.
• Do not add to the position.
• Be prepared to hold the position for several days or weeks.

Time Rules

• The optimal trading window is when funding rates are at extremes.
• Avoid trading when funding rates are stable.
• Be aware of the funding payment schedule.

Setup Classification

• A+ setup: Funding rate is below -0.2% and has been for 3 days.
• A setup: Funding rate is below -0.1% and has been for 24 hours.
• B setup: Funding rate is below -0.05% and has been for 12 hours.
• C setup: Funding rate is only slightly negative.

Market Selection Criteria

• Trade perpetual swaps with high open interest.
• The instrument should have a history of funding rate volatility.
• Avoid trading illiquid contracts.

Statistical Edge Metrics

• The expected win rate is 70%.
• The average win is the accumulated funding payments plus price appreciation.
• The average loss is the stop-loss level.
• The profit factor is high.
• The expectancy per trade is positive.

Failure Conditions

• The strategy fails if the trend continues indefinitely and funding rates remain negative.
• Avoid this setup in a parabolic downtrend.

Psychological Rules

• Be patient and have a contrarian mindset.
• Do not be afraid to long a falling market.

Advanced Components

• Use a script to track funding rates across multiple exchanges.
• Filter trades based on the open interest.
• Consider the term structure of the futures curve.
• The weekly chart should show a bullish divergence.

Location

• The setup is strongest when the market is in a state of panic.
• The setup is weakest when the market is in a healthy downtrend.
• The extremity of the funding rate is the key to success.