Ch. 2Strategy #76

Strategy #76

Zero Lag EMA Scalp

Entry Logic

  • Entry trigger: Price crosses the Zero Lag EMA.
  • Confirmation: A candle closes on the other side of the Zero Lag EMA.
  • Timeframe: 1-minute chart.
  • Location context: The Zero Lag EMA is very responsive to price changes.
  • Market condition: A fast-moving market.

Exit Logic

  • Profit target: 1R or when the Zero Lag EMA flattens.
  • Scaling out: Not recommended.
  • Trailing stop: A close on the wrong side of the Zero Lag EMA.
  • Signal failure: Exit if the Zero Lag EMA changes direction.
  • Opposite signal: Exit on a signal in the opposite direction.
  • Time expiration: Exit if the trade is not profitable within 3 minutes.
  • Momentum loss: Exit if momentum stalls.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard stop: Just below the entry candle's low (for longs) or above the high (for shorts).
  • Soft stop: A close on the wrong side of the Zero Lag EMA.
  • Max dollar loss: $40 per trade.
  • Max percent loss: 0.4% of account.
  • Structural stop: Not applicable.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk per trade: 0.2% of account.
  • Daily limit: 6 losing trades.
  • Weekly limit: 3% drawdown.
  • Max drawdown: 9%.
  • R:R requirement: Minimum 1:1.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing approach: Fixed dollar risk ($40 per trade).
  • Volatility adjustment: None.
  • Conviction sizing: None.
  • Scaling in: Not recommended.
  • Scaling out: Not recommended.

Trade Filtering

  • Market conditions: Only trade in fast-moving markets.
  • Setups: Only take trades when the Zero Lag EMA changes direction.
  • Instruments: Highly liquid stocks and ETFs.
  • Time restrictions: Only trade during the first hour of the market open.
  • Chop/news avoidance: Avoid trading around news.

Context Framework

  • Trend direction: The short-term trend is changing.
  • VWAP relationship: Trade in the direction of VWAP.
  • MA relationship: The Zero Lag EMA is very responsive.
  • Range location: The trade is taken on a momentum burst.
  • Higher TF alignment: The 5-minute chart should confirm the momentum.

Trade Management Rules

  • Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after a 0.5R move.
  • Scale out: Not recommended.
  • Add size: Not recommended.
  • Fast vs slow moves: This strategy is only for fast moves.

Time Rules

  • Optimal window: 9:30 AM - 10:30 AM EST.
  • Times to avoid: Any other time.
  • Session notes: Only works in the morning session.

Setup Classification

  • A+ setup: A sharp change in Zero Lag EMA direction with a strong confirmation candle.
  • A setup: A decent change in Zero Lag EMA direction.
  • B setup: A weak change in Zero Lag EMA direction.
  • C setup: Avoid.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: TSLA, NVDA, and other high-beta stocks.
  • Volume: Very high.
  • Volatility: Very high.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win rate: 62%.
  • Avg win: 1.1R.
  • Avg loss: 1R.
  • Profit factor: 1.70.
  • Expectancy: 0.70R.

Failure Conditions

  • The strategy fails in slow, choppy markets.
  • Avoid taking trades if the Zero Lag EMA is flat.

Psychological Rules

  • Be quick to take profits and cut losses.
  • Do not hesitate.

Advanced Components

  • Regime detection: Use the slope of the Zero Lag EMA to determine the momentum.
  • Filters: Only trade when the slope is steep.
  • Correlation: Be aware of market correlations.
  • MTF alignment: Check the 5-minute chart for confirmation.

Location

  • Strongest: In a fast-moving market.
  • Weakest: In a slow, choppy market.