EUR/USD New York Session Momentum

Entry Logic

• Entry triggers on a 5-minute candle closing above the New York session opening price (12:00 GMT).
• Confirmation requires a bullish engulfing candle or a 3-white-soldiers pattern.
• Timeframe is the 5-minute chart.
• Location is a pullback to the 20 EMA during the New York session.
• Market condition must be a trending market.

Exit Logic

• Profit target is the previous day's high for a long, or low for a short.
• No scaling out.
• Trailing stop is a 15-pip trailing stop.
• Exit on signal failure if the price closes below the 20 EMA.
• Exit on an opposite signal from a bearish engulfing candle.
• Exit on time expiration at the end of the New York session (21:00 GMT).
• Exit on momentum loss if the RSI (14) crosses below 50.

Stop Loss Structure

• Hard stop is placed 10 pips below the low of the entry candle.
• No soft stop is used.
• Maximum dollar loss is 0.75% of account equity.
• Maximum percent loss is 0.75% of account equity.
• Structural stop is placed below the most recent swing low.

Risk Management Framework

• Risk per trade is 0.75% of the account.
• Maximum daily loss limit is 2.25% of the account.
• Maximum weekly loss limit is 6% of the account.
• Maximum drawdown allowed is 18%.
• Risk-reward ratio requirement is a minimum of 1:1.5.

Position Sizing Model

• Sizing is based on a fixed fractional model (0.75% of account per trade).
• No volatility adjustment is used.
• Conviction sizing is not used.
• No scaling in.
• No scaling out.

Trade Filtering

• Avoid trading during the first 30 minutes of the New York session.
• Requires a clear trend on the 1-hour chart.
• Instrument is EUR/USD.
• Trade only during the New York session (12:00-21:00 GMT).
• Avoid trading during major US news releases.

Context Framework

• Trend direction is determined by the 1-hour chart.
• Price should be above the VWAP for longs, and below for shorts.
• Price should be above the 50 EMA on the 1-hour chart for longs, and below for shorts.
• Location is a pullback to a key moving average.
• Higher timeframe (4-hour) should be in a clear trend.

Trade Management Rules

• Move stop to breakeven after the price has moved 1R in your favor.
• No scaling out.
• Do not add to the position.
• Let the trailing stop manage the trade.

Time Rules

• Optimal trading window is from 13:00 to 17:00 GMT.
• Avoid trading during the last hour of the New York session.
• The New York session can have strong momentum after the London session closes.

Setup Classification

• A+ setup: Pullback to the 20 EMA in a strong trend with high volume.
• A setup: Pullback to the 20 EMA in a moderate trend.
• B setup: Pullback to the 50 EMA.
• C setup: Trading against the trend.

Market Selection Criteria

• Instrument is EUR/USD.
• Requires high liquidity and volume.
• Volatility should be moderate to high.

Statistical Edge Metrics

• Expected win rate is 50%.
• Average win is 1.5R.
• Average loss is 1R.
• Profit factor is 1.5.
• Expectancy per trade is +0.25R.

Failure Conditions

• Strategy fails in ranging markets.
• Avoid trading when the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are in conflict.

Psychological Rules

• Be patient and wait for the pullback to the 20 EMA.
• Do not force trades when there is no clear trend.

Advanced Components

• A trend filter (e.g., ADX) can be used to confirm the trend.
• No volatility or correlation filters are used.
• Multi-timeframe alignment with the 1-hour and 4-hour charts is essential.

Location

• Strongest during the middle of the New York session.
• Weakest during the beginning and end of the session.
• The presence of a clear trend is the most important factor.