Ch. 30Strategy #935

Strategy #935

Gamma Exposure (GEX) Level Trade

Entry Logic

  • Long entry: The market (SPX) is falling towards a major positive gamma exposure (GEX) level. This level should act as support, as dealers will be buying to hedge their positions. Enter long on a bullish reversal pattern at the GEX level.
  • Short entry: The market is rallying towards a major negative GEX level. This level should act as resistance. Enter short on a bearish reversal pattern.
  • Confirmation: A decrease in selling pressure as the market approaches the level.
  • Timeframe: 1-hour chart.
  • Location: At major GEX levels.
  • Market Condition: Any.

Exit Logic

  • Profit Target: The next major GEX level or the other side of the expected trading range.
  • Scaling Out: Not recommended.
  • Trailing Stop: Not recommended.
  • Signal Failure: If the market closes decisively beyond the GEX level.
  • Opposite Signal: Not applicable.
  • Time Expiration: Exit by the end of the day.
  • Momentum Loss: Not applicable.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard Stop: A few points beyond the GEX level.
  • Soft Stop: If the market is accepted beyond the GEX level.
  • Max Dollar Loss: $200 per trade.
  • Max Percent Loss: 1% of account.
  • Structural Stop: Not applicable.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk Per Trade: 1% of account.
  • Daily Limit: 2 losing trades.
  • Weekly Limit: 5% drawdown.
  • Max Drawdown: 10%.
  • R:R Requirement: Varies, but should be at least 2:1.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing Approach: Fixed fractional.
  • Volatility Adjustment: Not a primary concern.
  • Conviction Sizing: Not recommended.
  • Scaling In: Not recommended.
  • Scaling Out: Not recommended.

Trade Filtering

  • Market Conditions: Only trade when there are clear, significant GEX levels.
  • Setups: A clean test of a GEX level.
  • Instruments: SPX, SPY.
  • Time Restrictions: Any.
  • Chop/News Avoidance: Be cautious around major news.

Context Framework

  • Trend Direction: Not applicable.
  • VWAP Relationship: Not a primary concern.
  • MA Relationship: Not a primary concern.
  • Range Location: The GEX levels often define the expected trading range for the day.
  • Higher TF Alignment: Not required.

Trade Management Rules

  • Breakeven: Move stop to breakeven after 1.5R of profit.
  • Scale Out: Not recommended.
  • Add Size: Not recommended.
  • Fast vs Slow Moves: This is a mean-reversion trade.

Time Rules

  • Optimal Window: Any.
  • Times to Avoid: The open can be volatile.
  • Session Notes: A strategy based on options market structure.

Setup Classification

  • A+ Setup: A perfect test of a very large GEX level.
  • A Setup: A good test of a GEX level.
  • B Setup: A messy test or a minor GEX level.
  • C Setup: No clear GEX levels.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instruments: SPX and SPY.
  • Volume: High.
  • Volatility: Any.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Win Rate: 65%.
  • Avg Win: 2R.
  • Avg Loss: 1R.
  • Profit Factor: 1.3.
  • Expectancy: 0.3R per trade.

Failure Conditions

  • Market Conditions: A strong, trending market that blows through the GEX levels.
  • Specific Scenarios: A major news event that overrides the options market structure.

Psychological Rules

  • Mental Discipline: Requires trust in the data and the ability to fade moves.

Advanced Components

  • Regime Detection: Not needed.
  • Filters: Use a service that provides GEX data.
  • Correlation: Not a concern.
  • MTF Alignment: Not required.

Location

  • Strongest: In a range-bound or moderately trending market.
  • Weakest: In a very strong, one-directional trend.