Iceberg Order Trade

Entry Logic

• Entry is a long position when an iceberg order is detected on the bid side at a key support level.
• Confirmation is the bid size refreshing after being hit.
• Timeframe is the tick chart.
• Location is at a support level.
• Market is in a range or a slow uptrend.

Exit Logic

• Profit target is the next resistance level.
• Scale out 50% at a 2:1 risk-reward ratio.
• Trail the stop loss below the low of the last 10 ticks.
• Exit if the iceberg order disappears.
• Exit on a bearish candle.
• Exit if the price does not move in your favor within 2 minutes.
• Exit if volume dries up.

Stop Loss Structure

• Hard stop is placed 4 ticks below the entry price.
• Soft stop is when the iceberg order is pulled.
• Maximum dollar loss is $40 per trade.
• Maximum percent loss is 0.4% of the account.
• Structural stop is below the support level.

Risk Management Framework

• Risk 0.2% of the account per trade.
• Daily loss limit is 0.8% of the account.
• Weekly loss limit is 2.4% of the account.
• Maximum drawdown is 8%.
• Risk-reward ratio must be at least 1:3.

Position Sizing Model

• Use a fixed lot size.
• No volatility adjustment.
• Same size for all setups.
• Do not scale in.
• Scale out as per the exit logic.

Trade Filtering

• Avoid trading during high-impact news.
• Only trade at pre-defined support and resistance levels.
• Trade only highly liquid instruments.
• Avoid trading in the first minute of the market open.
• Do not trade in very volatile markets.

Context Framework

• Trend is sideways or slowly rising.
• Price is near VWAP.
• Price is consolidating.
• Location is at a support level.
• The higher timeframe chart (5-minute) shows a consolidation.

Trade Management Rules

• Move stop to breakeven after the first profit target is hit.
• Scale out at resistance levels.
• Do not add to the position.
• Take profits quickly.

Time Rules

• Optimal trading window is from 9:30 AM to 11:30 AM EST.
• Avoid trading during lunchtime.
• The strategy is best suited for quiet market conditions.

Setup Classification

• A+ setup: Large iceberg order at a major support level with immediate bullish reaction.
• A setup: Moderate iceberg order at a minor support level.
• B setup: Small iceberg order with a delayed reaction.
• C setup: No clear iceberg order.

Market Selection Criteria

• Trade ES, NQ, and ZB futures.
• High liquidity is essential.
• Low to moderate volatility is preferred.

Statistical Edge Metrics

• Expected win rate is 75%.
• Average win is 1.5R.
• Average loss is 1R.
• Profit factor is 1.125.
• Expectancy per trade is 0.125R.

Failure Conditions

• The strategy fails in fast-moving, trending markets.
• Avoid trading when there is a lack of order flow.

Psychological Rules

• Be decisive and act quickly on the signal.
• Do not get attached to the trade.

Advanced Components

• Use a Time and Sales window to detect iceberg orders.
• Use a filter to measure the size of the iceberg order.
• Do not trade correlated instruments at the same time.
• The 5-minute chart should confirm the consolidation.

Location

• Strongest at well-established support and resistance levels.
• Weakest in the middle of a range.
• The location of the iceberg order is a key factor in determining the trade's success.