Ch. 16Strategy #588

Strategy #588

Auto Fibonacci Retracement Trade

Entry Logic

  • Exact Entry Trigger: The auto Fibonacci retracement tool plots a level that is then touched by price.
  • Confirmation: A reversal candle at the auto-plotted level.
  • Timeframe: Any.
  • Location Context: Varies based on the swing points the tool identifies.
  • Market Condition: A trending market.

Exit Logic

  • Profit Target(s): The previous swing high/low.
  • Scaling Out: None.
  • Trailing Stop: A moving average.
  • Exit on Signal Failure: A close through the retracement level.
  • Exit on Opposite Signal: A reversal signal.
  • Exit on Time Expiration: None.
  • Exit on Momentum Loss: Divergence.

Stop Loss Structure

  • Hard Stop: Beyond the next retracement level.
  • Soft Stop: A close through the level.
  • Maximum Dollar Loss: Varies.
  • Maximum Percent Loss: Varies.
  • Structural Stop: Behind a structural level.

Risk Management Framework

  • Risk Per Trade: Varies.
  • Maximum Daily Loss Limit: Varies.
  • Maximum Weekly Loss Limit: Varies.
  • Maximum Drawdown: Varies.
  • Risk-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1:2.

Position Sizing Model

  • Sizing Approach: Varies.
  • Volatility-Based Adjustment: Yes.
  • Conviction-Based Sizing: Yes.
  • Scaling In: No.
  • Scaling Out: No.

Trade Filtering

  • Market Conditions to Avoid: Ranging markets.
  • Specific Setups Required: A clear trend.
  • Instrument Requirements: Any.
  • Time of Day Restrictions: None.
  • Chop/News Avoidance: Be aware of news.

Context Framework

  • Trend Direction: With the trend.
  • VWAP Relationship: Varies.
  • Moving Average Relationship: Varies.
  • Range Location: Not for ranges.
  • Higher Timeframe Alignment: Recommended.

Trade Management Rules

  • Breakeven: After 1R.
  • Scale Out: No.
  • Add Size: No.
  • Fast vs. Slow Moves: Adjust accordingly.

Time Rules

  • Optimal Trading Window: Any.
  • Times to Avoid: None.
  • Session-Specific Notes: None.

Setup Classification

  • A+ Setup: A bounce off a key auto-plotted level with strong confirmation.
  • A Setup: A bounce off a minor auto-plotted level.
  • B Setup: A weak bounce.
  • C Setup: No bounce.

Market Selection Criteria

  • Instrument Requirements: Any.
  • Volume/Liquidity: Good.
  • Volatility: Moderate.

Statistical Edge Metrics

  • Expected Win Rate: 50-60%
  • Average Win: 2.5R
  • Average Loss: 1R
  • Profit Factor: 1.25-1.5
  • Expectancy Per Trade: +0.25-0.5R

Failure Conditions

  • Market Conditions: A trend reversal.
  • Specific Scenarios: A news event.

Psychological Rules

  • Mental Discipline: Trust in the automated tool, but also use discretion.

Advanced Components

  • Market Regime Detection: None.
  • Volatility/Liquidity Filters: None.
  • Correlation Filters: None.
  • Multi-Timeframe Alignment: Recommended.

Location

  • Where Strongest: In a clear, textbook trend.
  • Where Weakest: In a choppy, unpredictable market.