Bitcoin VWAP Reclaim

Entry Logic

• Price must cross and close above the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) on the 15-minute chart.
• Confirmation requires a subsequent 15-minute candle to make a new high.
• The entry timeframe is the 15-minute chart.
• The setup is valid only when the price is also above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA).
• This strategy performs best in a market showing a clear intraday trend.

Exit Logic

• The primary profit target is the previous day's high.
• Scale out 25% of the position at a 1:1 risk-reward ratio.
• A trailing stop is placed below the low of the previous 15-minute candle.
• Exit the trade if the price closes back below the VWAP.
• An opposite signal (a close below VWAP) triggers an immediate exit.
• The trade is closed if it is not profitable within 4 hours.
• Exit if momentum indicators, like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), show divergence.

Stop Loss Structure

• A hard stop is placed 1% below the entry price.
• A soft stop is a 15-minute candle close below the 20 EMA.
• The maximum dollar loss per trade is capped at $500.
• The maximum percent loss per trade is 2% of the allocated capital.
• The structural stop is placed below the most recent swing low.

Risk Management Framework

• Risk no more than 1% of the trading account on a single trade.
• The maximum daily loss limit is 3% of the account.
• The maximum weekly loss limit is 6% of the account.
• A maximum drawdown of 15% will trigger a 2-week trading halt.
• The minimum required risk-reward ratio is 1.5:1.

Position Sizing Model

• Use a fixed fractional position sizing model.
• Adjust position size based on the 14-period Average True Range (ATR).
• For A+ setups, use a 1.5x position size.
• Do not scale into trades for this strategy.
• Scale out at predefined profit targets.

Trade Filtering

• Avoid trading during periods of low volume or high exchange inflow.
• The setup requires a clear break and retest of the VWAP.
• This strategy is designed for major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
• The optimal trading time is during the London or New York sessions.
• Do not trade within 30 minutes of major news events.

Context Framework

• The daily chart should show a clear uptrend.
• The price must be above the daily VWAP.
• The price should be above the 50-period simple moving average (SMA).
• The entry should occur in the lower half of the daily range.
• The 4-hour chart must align with the bullish bias.

Trade Management Rules

• Move the stop loss to breakeven after the first profit target is hit.
• Scale out at 1:1 and 2:1 risk-reward ratios.
• Do not add to the position.
• In fast-moving markets, use a wider trailing stop.

Time Rules

• The optimal trading window is from 8:00 to 16:00 UTC.
• Avoid trading during the Asian session due to lower volume.
• Pay attention to funding rate changes at the end of each session.

Setup Classification

• A+ setup: VWAP reclaim with high volume and a bullish engulfing candle.
• A setup: VWAP reclaim with average volume.
• B setup: VWAP reclaim with low volume.
• C setup: VWAP reclaim in a ranging market.

Market Selection Criteria

• Trade only Bitcoin and Ethereum.
• The 24-hour volume should be above $1 billion.
• The daily ATR should be at least 3%.

Statistical Edge Metrics

• The expected win rate is 55%.
• The average win is 2.5%.
• The average loss is 1.5%.
• The profit factor is 1.5.
• The expectancy per trade is 0.425%.

Failure Conditions

• The strategy fails in ranging or low-volume markets.
• Avoid this setup during periods of high market manipulation.

Psychological Rules

• Maintain discipline and adhere to the stop-loss rules.
• Do not chase the price if the entry is missed.

Advanced Components

• Use order flow analysis to confirm the VWAP reclaim.
• Filter trades based on the Commitment of Traders (COT) report.
• Avoid trades if there is a strong correlation with the stock market.
• The weekly chart must show a clear uptrend.

Location

• The setup is strongest after a significant price correction.
• The setup is weakest during periods of market consolidation.
• The location of the reclaim determines the trade's probability of success.