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Module 1: Trading Math: Expectancy

Chapter 1: What Expectancy Really Means

10 lessons in this chapter

1
The Expectancy Formula Explained for Day Traders
Module 11: Trading Math: Expectancy, Chapter 1: What Expectancy Really Means, Lesson 1
6 min
2
Why Most Traders Lose: Negative Expectancy Exposed
Module 11: Trading Math: Expectancy, Chapter 1: What Expectancy Really Means, Lesson 2
6 min
3
Win Rate vs Reward-to-Risk: The Two Variables That Control Your P&L
Your trading P&L depends on two primary variables: win rate and reward-to-risk ratio. Understanding their interplay is fundamental to consistent profitability. This lesson defines these variables and demonstrates their mathematical relationship to expectancy.
6 min
4
Calculating Your Personal Expectancy from Trade History
Module 11: Trading Math: Expectancy Chapter 1: What Expectancy Really Means Lesson 4: Calculating Your Personal Expectancy from Trade History
6 min
5
How Expectancy Changes Across Market Conditions
Expectancy quantifies a trading strategy's average profit or loss per trade. It is not static. Market conditions directly influence a strategy's win rate, average win, and average loss. Therefore, expectancy changes. Understanding this variability is essential for adaptive strategy deployment.
6 min
6
Expectancy Per Share vs Expectancy Per Trade vs Expectancy Per Dollar Risked
Module 11: Trading Math: Expectancy, Chapter 1: What Expectancy Really Means, Lesson 6
6 min
7
The Minimum Sample Size You Need for Reliable Expectancy
Expectancy quantifies the average profit or loss per trade. A positive expectancy indicates a profitable system over time. However, a small sample size can misrepresent true expectancy. This lesson details the mathematical requirements for a reliable expectancy calculation.
5 min
8
How Commissions and Slippage Destroy Marginal Expectancy
Module 11: Trading Math: Expectancy, Chapter 1: What Expectancy Really Means, Lesson 8
6 min
9
Expectancy Curves: Mapping Your Edge Across Time
Module 11: Trading Math: Expectancy Chapter 1: What Expectancy Really Means Lesson 9: Expectancy Curves: Mapping Your Edge Across Time
6 min
10
Building an Expectancy Spreadsheet from Scratch
Module 11: Trading Math: Expectancy, Chapter 1: What Expectancy Really Means, Lesson 10
5 min

Other Chapters in This Module

Chapter 2: Maximizing Positive Expectancy10 lessons