Day Trading Setups
First Red Day After a Run
The traders who last aren't the ones who never lose. They're the ones who never guess.Jason Parker, Founder of Trading Habits
A stock closes green for a genuine run of daily candles, then prints its first red close. This tool tracks the streak live and lets you test whether that first red day is the start of a genuine reversal or just a pause.
Watch the streak, read the red day, call the next leg
Daily candles play out one at a time. A live counter tracks the consecutive green closes. The instant a red close prints, the streak locks, you see that red day's own genuine range and where it closed inside that range, then you bet Continuation-Down or Bounce-Back-Up before the next genuine days play forward.
Building the run…
| Streak at red day | Trials | Continued down | Continuation rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 day run | 0 | 0 | — |
| 4-5 day run | 0 | 0 | — |
| 6+ day run | 0 | 0 | — |
How it works
- The streak counter tracks genuine consecutive green daily closes. Every day that closes above its own prior close extends the run. Any day that closes below its prior close breaks it, that day is the first red day.
- The red day gets read on its own terms. Its genuine high-minus-low range and where its close landed inside that range, close near the low reads as heavier selling than a close that recovered back toward the middle of the day's range.
- Run length at the red day is recorded before you bet. A run that ran 2 or 3 days is a very different setup than one that ran 6 or more, the table below tracks results separately for each.
- The bet is graded on genuine forward daily closes. A handful of genuine trading days play out after the red day, and continuation-down is scored against whether price closed meaningfully lower than the red day's own close.
Where this breaks
A long green run does not guarantee a hard reversal on the first red day
A first red day after a long run tells you sellers finally showed up, it does not tell you they are done buying. Some of the strongest uptrends in this tool's own data pause for exactly one red day and then resume higher, especially after shorter runs. The streak length and the red day's own close position both shift the odds, but neither one removes the genuine chance that the first red day was just a rest day inside a trend that is still intact.
