What happens to my results if I cut my risk per trade in half?

How this is calculated

• Both scenarios use the exact binomial probability distribution of outcomes, held constant across every modeled trade, at your current risk per trade and at exactly half that risk per trade.
• The probability of ending the run below your starting balance never gets worse when you cut risk per trade in half, it either drops or stays about the same. At already-conservative risk levels, typically under 3% or so, that probability can barely move, even while the size of the swings on both sides still shrinks.
• This models a fixed percentage risk per trade (compounding), not a fixed dollar risk. Both scenarios recalculate position size as the account balance changes.
• This is a statistical model based on the win rate and reward-to-risk ratio you enter, held constant. It is not a forecast, and your actual win rate and reward-to-risk ratio can and will vary from trade to trade in reality.
• Cutting risk in half usually lowers the expected and median ending balance too. The trade-off this tool illustrates is a narrower range of outcomes in exchange for slower expected growth, not a free improvement.