What could my account look like after a set number of trades at my win rate and risk/reward ratio?

Enter your starting account size, risk per trade, win rate, and reward-to-risk ratio, plus a number of trades to model. The tool computes the exact probability distribution of ending balances using the binomial distribution, and reports the median, a 10th to 90th percentile range, and the probability of ending below your starting balance.

Why is the median different from the average in the result?

Compounding is multiplicative. A small share of very strong outcomes can pull the average up well above where most outcomes actually land, while the median reflects the outcome a typical run is closest to. Relying on the average alone can be overly optimistic for a compounding, fixed-percentage sizing strategy.

Account Growth Simulator: What Could My Account Look Like After a Set Number of Trades?

Enter Your Trading Numbers

Your Result

Fill in the fields on the left and click Model My Account to see a realistic range of outcomes, not just the best case.

How this is calculated

Each trade risks a set percentage of your current account balance, so gains and losses compound. This is called fixed-fractional position sizing.
Because compounding is multiplicative, the final balance after a set number of trades depends only on how many of those trades were wins, not the order they happened in. This tool uses that fact to compute exact probabilities across every possible win count with the binomial distribution, instead of running random trials.
The median (50th percentile) is the outcome your typical run lands closest to. The average (mean) can be pulled higher than the median because a small share of very strong runs pull the average up. Rely on the median and the 10th to 90th percentile range to judge a likely outcome, not the average alone.
The 10th and 90th percentile values mark a rough likely range. Roughly 8 out of 10 modeled outcomes fall between them, using the win rate and risk/reward you entered, held constant every trade.
This assumes the same win rate, the same risk/reward ratio, and the same percentage risk on every trade, with no strategy changes, no fixed dollar withdrawals, and no fees. Actual trading results will vary from this model for all of those reasons.

Risk & liability disclaimer: This tool models a mathematical distribution of possible outcomes based on the win rate, risk/reward ratio, and risk percentage you enter, held constant across every modeled trade. It is a statistical model, not a forecast. It does not predict your actual win rate, your actual results, or any specific trade outcome. Trading Habits is not a broker-dealer, registered investment adviser, or tax professional, and is not affiliated with any broker, exchange, or data provider. We do not guarantee this tool is error-free or suitable for your situation, always verify results independently and consult a licensed professional before making any trading or financial decision. You could lose some or all of the capital you trade with.

What could my account look like after a set number of trades at my win rate and risk/reward ratio?

Enter Your Trading Numbers

Your Result

How this is calculated

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