How many losing trades in a row should I expect based on my win rate?

How this is calculated

• Your loss rate is 100% minus your win rate.
• The odds of a specific streak, a set number of losses in a row starting from one particular point, equal your loss rate raised to the power of the streak length.
• The odds of hitting that streak at least once somewhere across your next set of trades are worked out trade by trade, tracking every possible run of losses in progress, not just the single-streak odds multiplied by the number of trades.
• The expected number of times that streak shows up across your trade window is the average count you would see if this exact scenario played out many times. Your own results could show more, fewer, or none of them even if your win rate holds.
• This treats every trade as independent, with the same win rate every time. Trading strategies can cluster wins and losses together depending on market conditions, so streaks in your actual results can run longer or shorter than this math predicts.
• A losing streak inside these odds is not proof your strategy stopped working. It is what a win rate below 100% looks like over enough trades. Sizing up after a loss to try to win it back turns a normal cold stretch into a much larger problem.