Does a winning streak mean my strategy is working better than usual?

Not necessarily. If the streak length falls within normal odds for your win rate, it can happen from ordinary variance alone. A change in strategy performance is better measured over a large sample of trades, not a short hot streak.

Home/Trading Tools/Winning Streak Probability Calculator

Trading Psychology Tools

What's the probability of a winning streak this long happening by chance alone, based on my win rate?

Q: What's the probability of a winning streak this long happening by chance alone, based on my win rate?

Enter your win rate and the length of the winning streak you want the odds for. The tool calculates the exact probability of that streak starting right now, or optionally the odds of hitting it at least once across a set number of upcoming trades.

The traders who last aren't the ones who never lose. They're the ones who never guess.

Jason Parker, Founder of Trading Habits

Enter Your Numbers

Your Result

Fill in the fields on the left and click Calculate to see how likely a winning streak of that length actually is at your win rate.

How this is calculated

Your win probability is the win rate you enter, expressed as a decimal.
The odds of a specific streak, a set number of wins in a row starting from one particular point, equal your win rate raised to the power of the streak length.
The odds of hitting that streak at least once somewhere across your next set of trades are worked out trade by trade, tracking every possible run of wins in progress, not just the single-streak odds multiplied by the number of trades.
This treats every trade as independent, with the same win rate every time. A hot streak inside these odds is not proof your edge suddenly improved. It is what a win rate below 100% produces over enough trades, in both directions.
Increasing your position size because of a winning streak that falls within normal odds turns ordinary variance into a much larger bet on the assumption that the streak will continue.

Risk & liability disclaimer: This calculator produces a mathematical estimate based on the win rate and streak length you enter, assuming independent trades with a constant win rate. It is not financial advice, it does not predict your next trade, and it does not guarantee any trading outcome. Trading Habits is not a broker-dealer, registered investment adviser, or tax professional, and is not affiliated with any broker, exchange, or data provider. We do not guarantee this tool is error-free or suitable for your situation, always verify results independently and consult a licensed professional before making any trading or financial decision. You could lose some or all of the capital you trade with.

What's the probability of a winning streak this long happening by chance alone, based on my win rate?

Enter Your Numbers

Your Result

How this is calculated

More Trading Tools