What if I don't know my genuine pass probability?

Use a conservative estimate based on your actual backtested or forward-tested results under the evaluation's specific rules, not your general win rate. Passing an evaluation with a daily loss limit and a profit target is a different task than normal trading.

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How much could repeatedly failing a prop firm evaluation actually cost me?

Q: How much could repeatedly failing a prop firm evaluation actually cost me?

Enter your fee per attempt and your estimated pass probability. The tool calculates the expected number of attempts to pass (1 divided by your pass probability) and multiplies that by your fee for an expected total cost.

The traders who last aren't the ones who never lose. They're the ones who never guess.

Jason Parker, Founder of Trading Habits

Enter Your Numbers

Be honest about your pass probability. Most traders overestimate it going in.

Your Result

Fill in the fields on the left and click Simulate My Retry Cost to see the math on repeated attempts.

How this is calculated

This treats each evaluation attempt as an independent event with the same pass probability every time, the standard assumption behind a geometric distribution.
Expected number of attempts to pass equals 1 divided by your pass probability. Expected total cost equals that number multiplied by your fee.
Cumulative pass probability by attempt N equals 1 minus (1 minus your pass probability) raised to the power of N. This is shown for each attempt up to your max.
If your actual pass rate improves or worsens with experience, this simplified model won't capture that. It's meant to show the arithmetic of retrying a paid evaluation, not to predict your specific outcome.

Risk & liability disclaimer: This tool only performs simple arithmetic on the numbers you enter. It is not financial, investment, or tax advice, and it does not access your broker account or verify your actual fills. Trading Habits is not a broker-dealer, registered investment adviser, or tax professional, and is not affiliated with any broker, exchange, or data provider. Always verify results independently and consult a licensed professional before making any trading or financial decision.

How much could repeatedly failing a prop firm evaluation actually cost me?

Enter Your Numbers

Your Result

How this is calculated

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